President Trump should stick to his original instinct to pull out of Afghanistan. On the campaign trail Trump said the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan was sheer “nonsense.” He was right. Before suggesting a new creative strategy, I shall share the opening and closing paragraphs of Afghanistan War, a chapter in my 2005 book Custom Maid War for New World Disorder.
“Until September 11, most Americans thought Afghans were oversized shawls one threw on a couch or were the good-looking, slinky, expensive dogs Beverly Hills socialites drove around with in the front seat of their convertibles. Then suddenly Afghans became real people and were being asked to defeat the Taliban and destroy Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda headquarters and training camps.
…
“With the exception of the immortal stand by Leonidas and his 300 Spartans at Thermopylae in 490 B.C., there are few cases of an entire Military force being annihilated. One happened in Afghanistan in 1842 when British forces tried to pull out. The Afghan descendants of Genghis Khan (whose home country I visited again this week), wiped out a modern European army to its last man. If America doesn’t want to suffer the same fate, or that of Vietnam, Lebanon or Somalia, where America pulled out gracefully with its tail between its legs because the number of body bags coming home got to be to much for America to stomach, then it has to make a long-term serious commitment.”
By going against his original instinct, Trump is following in the footsteps of President Obama. Trump’s military surge will fail like the previous two surges failed.
To make matters worse, Trump expects the support of India, Pakistan and NATO militaries to win! C’mon? Does any serious military analyst or Trump really believe such an alliance can defeat the Taliban? India is in a war with Pakistan over Kashmir; on the verge of a war with China over a strip of land in the Himalayas over which they fought in 1962; and unable to put down the Communist rebels at home that control vast swathes of territory. Meanwhile, Pakistan receives billions of dollars from the U.S. to fight the Taliban it supports – a military force established by America and Pakistan to fight the Russians – who also tried and failed to do in Afghanistan what America is trying to do.
America is better-off spending the same billions, probably a lot less, in the nearby Stans that are happy to contribute to the peaceful resolution of the Afghanistan War.
The Taliban are a well-seasoned U.S.-Pakistan made fighting machine. India, Pakistan and NATO European countries have no appetite to again tackle such a fierce-fighting force. Besides, Europe has its hands full with homegrown Islamist terrorists.
America’s longest war can only be brought to a victorious conclusion with a new creative strategy with new partners that have something to gain and a lot more to lose if they don’t join. NATO and India don’t qualify. Pakistan is debatable.
China, Russia, Stans and Iran do. Especially China.
America’s other military priorities are North Korea and the Middle East. India, Pakistan and Europe haven’t and can’t do anything militarily on these fronts either.
China, Russia, Stans and Iran can. Especially China.
China has a working military relationship with Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Stans, North Korea, Syria, Iraq and even India. The kind of partner America needs.
China, like Russia, also faces a Muslim insurgency at home. The last thing China or Russia want or need are seasoned Afghan fighters coming to the support of the Muslim resistance movements there. Afghanistan is a breeding ground and basic training camp for such fighters! China can’t afford Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for Uygur militant groups or a threat to China’s growing interests in the region.
An August 23, China Daily editorial on Trump’s Afghanistan war strategy said:
“Overwhelming US military prowess may stop terrorist resurgence and deny terrorists access to weapons of mass destruction. However, even if it is against President Trump’s wishes, unless the US presence in Afghanistan proves conducive to the war-torn country’s process of nation building and addressing the problems of anarchy, poverty and factional strife, the day may never come when Washington can assuredly claim the war is won.”
I agree. That’s not good for America, China, Russia, Stans or Iran. China has a lot to gain for its “Belt and Road” initiative with a peaceful conclusion of the Afghan war – reason enough to join. A good place to start is the revival of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group. It was set up for peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. The group includes Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and the U.S.
Russia and Iran are seasoned Afghan fighters. Together with China they are the logical military alliance to start working together and learn how to fight as a cohesive alliance – not only in Afghanistan, but North Korea, Syria and Iraq. What better way to get Iran out of Syria, denuclearize North Korea and see a more peaceful Middle East?