The U.S. cannot fight and win two wars simultaneously against China. It will be lucky to win one — The Trade War. An economic war. The Taiwan War — a political and military war — it will lose for sure.
In 2017, the U.S. Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act to allow American warships to conduct port calls in Taiwan.
After winning the U.S. presidential election in 2016, President-elect Trump accepted a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president. Earlier this month on March 5, President Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act to encourage visits between U.S. government officials with Taiwan government officials at all levels.
These developments are tantamount to giving Taiwan “semi-official” status and constitutes a gradual shift in the U.S. “One China” policy. A policy shift China will never accept under any conditions.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that the Nationalist government has been able to hold onto during their ongoing Chinese Civil War only because of the military support it received — and continues to receive — from the U.S.
A People’s Liberation Army general was quoted in a Chinese newspaper in Hong Kong as saying that “the date that U.S. warships make a call on a Taiwanese port would be the date for unification.” This is both a warning to the U.S. and a threat to Taiwanese officials.
President Xi Jinping warned in his 30-minute closing remarks of the recent 16-day session of the National People’s Congress, that moves towards independence in Taiwan or “any efforts to divide the nation would be predestined to fail.” Attempts at separation would “face the punishment of history,” he said.
Beijing’s official position is still “peaceful unification” and “one country two systems.” However, in all official pronouncements by leaders from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping, China has never renounced the use of military force in achieving reunification.
What can America do if China decides to invade Taiwan and reunify by force?
What many political pundits have missed in their criticism of the removal of term limits in the Chinese Constitution on the office of president, which now allows Xi to serve indefinitely, is that it is related to the issue of unification.
The fact is President Xi Jinping wants to go down in history as the President who re-united the Motherland. As President and Chairman of the Chinese Military Command he can and will.
I agree wholeheartedly with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s closing remarks at the recently concluded National People’s Congress.
“A stable China-U.S. relationship is in the interests of both countries and the whole world.”