The Philippines is an archipelagic nation of 7,100-plus islands with the world’s fifth longest coastline, 36,289km, with an inadequate defense force to protect its borders and territorial rights.
Spain had ceded the country to the U.S. in 1898 in exchange for $20 million. The U.S. in turn, granted the Philippines independence in 1946. Several bilateral agreements were signed at the time. The Bell Act and Parity Agreement, gave Americans the same trading and business rights as Filipinos, and a defense agreement gave the U.S. a 99-year-lease on 23 military bases.
The Philippines Constitution prohibits the permanent basing of foreign troops in the country. As a result, the country terminated the defense agreement in 1992 and closed the U.S. military bases.
In 2014, both countries signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, which allows the U.S. to circumvent the prohibition against permanent placement of foreign troops – by rotating them – at five military bases.
On February 3, 2023, the Philippines allowed the U.S. to increase the number of military bases to nine, to enable “more rapid support for humanitarian and climate related disasters in the Philippines, and respond to other shared challenges.”
The four new bases locations remain undisclosed, but are believed to be aimed at containing China; one in the Cagayan province facing Taiwan, one in Isabela, facing the Pacific, and one each in Zambales and Palawan facing the West Philippine Sea where China has built artificial islands and made them into military bases.
“These efforts are especially important as the People’s Republic of China continues to advance its illegitimate claims in the West Philippine Sea,” said U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Manila when the new bases agreement was announced.
“China’s dangerous and coercive actions throughout the Indo-Pacific, including around Taiwan, towards the Pacific island countries and in the East and South China Seas, threatens regional peace and stability,” Austen added a couple weeks later in Australia.
With Manila now back in the U.S. loop with Japan, South Korea and Australia, the BBC noted that Washington has “stitched the gap in the arc of U.S. alliances stretching from South Korea and Japan in the north to Australia in the south.”
The decision to expand the U.S. military footprint in the Philippines was President Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos Jr.’s most consequential decision yet, with major geopolitical implications, since it placed the nation in the center of Washington’s “integrated deterrence” strategy against China.
Some political observers think that the Philippines may not wish to remain merely a link in the arc. It could go for a regional alliance of democracies covering possibly other members of the Quad – a foursome security group that brings Australia and India together with the U.S. and Japan. Interestingly, both Australian and Indian defense forces have held joint exercises with their Philippine counterpart in the past.
These mutual assurances marked a quantum shift from the policy Marcos’ predecessor Rodrigo Duterte pursued by voluntarily distancing from the U.S. and embracing China.
“The U.S., out of self-interest and zero-sum game mentality, continues to step up military posture in this region … During his visit, the US secretary of defense smeared China on the issue of South China Sea to advance the anti-China political agenda of the US,” the Chinese embassy said.
“It is hoped that the Philippine side stays vigilant and resists being taken advantage of and dragged into troubled waters.”
On February 18, 2023, in a speech at a military alumni event, Marcos said the country “Will not lose an inch of its territory. We will continue to uphold our territorial integrity and sovereignty in accordance with our constitution and with international law. We will work with our neighbors to secure the safety and security of our peoples.”
“The country has seen heightened geopolitical tensions that do not conform to our ideals of peace and threaten the security and stability of the country, of the region and of the world.”
On February 14, Marcos summoned China’s ambassador to express his “serious concern” over Beijing’s “increasing frequency and intensity of actions” against the Philippine coastguard and Filipino fishermen in the South China Sea.
The Philippines’ foreign ministry also filed a diplomatic protest after manila’s coastguard reported its Chinese counterpart had directed a “military-grade laser” at one of its ships supporting a resupply mission to troops, temporarily blinding its crew on the bridge.
Many Filipinos wonder if the course Marcos is charting is in their better interest, especially if Washington delivers on its pledge to defend Taiwan in the event Beijing deploys military power to integrate Taiwan with the mainland.
Still, the Philippines can maintain relatively stable relations with Beijing if it calibrates the parameters of its military ties with the West, if “The Philippines shall continue to be a friend to all, and an enemy to none,” as Marcos declared at the U.N. General Assembly in September 2022. Much will also depend on the trajectory of maritime disputes in the South China Sea and the realization of China’s infrastructure investment plans in the country. By offering tangible carrots, Beijing can encourage Marcos to calibrate the parameters of its alliance with the U.S. to maintain optimal relations with both China and the U.S.
The alternative, a hot American-Chinese military sandwich!