Hot War Percolating in South China Sea

The concern being voiced by politicians and pundits over a potential conflict over Taiwan over-shadows a far greater danger of a hot war that is brewing and percolating in the South China Sea.

This was brought home by the December 21 “near miss” between a Chinese Shenyang J-11BHS jet fighter and U.S. RC-135 surveillance plane. The U.S. said the J-11 had flown in front of the American plane within “20 feet” of its nose, forcing the U.S. plane to perform evasive measures to avoid a collision. A PLA spokesman said it was the U.S. plane that “suddenly changed its flight altitude and squeezed the Chinese aircraft to the left, making dangerous approaching manoeuvers despite repeated warnings from the Chinese side.”

The close encounter is a preview of the growing military challenges and confrontations between America and China, as the U.S. enters “the most transformative year in U.S. force projection in the region in a generation” – because China is aggressively enhancing its projection of power in the South China Sea.

China is developing what is being called an “anti-access/area denial strategy” designed to control the seas in Asia and prevent the U.S. access in the event of a conflict.

The U.S. response is to stop China from doing so by hampering its command, control, communications, computer and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems (ISR) – the tip of both countries spear as they try to dominate the region – on and under China’s near seas.

Mark J. Valencia, a non-resident senior research fellow at the Huayang Institute for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance said it best: “Of particular importance to Beijing, the South China Sea provides relative sanctuary for its retaliatory strike nuclear submarines based in Yulin on Hainan. The U.S. wants to deny China this sanctuary and uses its ISR probes to detect, track and if necessary, target the subs.”

Valencia points out that “This is the strategic calculus behind the US’ ISR probes and China’s attempt to keep them as far away from its military assets as possible.” Starting in the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

Australian ISR probes supporting the U.S. may soon be joined by those of Japan.

As this strategic percolating contest heats up, it runs the risk of boiling over into a hot war in the South China Sea.